CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY

Politicians must deal with climate change and sea level rise.

TV pundits discuss why the presidential race has been quiet about the ramifications of climate change  on the future policy of this nation.   

I suggest the silence is due to a lack of thought on the subject, or perhaps a desire to avoid the issue until after the election in a few days.  Hurricane Sandy turned over all the stones on the subject and we must address the future.  Is climate change real is no longer the question.  the question now is How fast is this warming phenomena proceeding and how much time do we have to vacate the lowlands with minimal loss of life?  The displacement of humans from around the seacoasts is a huge task, will affect the price of local real estate and will see an end to local neighborhoods as the price of real estate escalates.  Politicians are avoiding this issue but no longer will be able to after this latest storm and sea level rise. 

Perhaps any settled insurance claims in the floodplain areas should give a bonus for vacating the land, upon which hurricane and flood insurance will not be available thereafter.  The nation cannot subsidize continued claims.  Individuals and businesses would be discouraged from purchase and use of the land.  The usable land area is shrinking along the shores.    

So how fast is the world warming?  Current models have predicted the pattern of more extreme weather events but have not predicted the actual rate of change, which could be accelerating.  Former models had assumed a slower rate of climate change.   In 1950, most assumed the climate was stable within a range.  In the Southwestern USA the warming and drying trend extends back over ten thousand years.  Within Grandpa Al's memory, the hills ran with water and ivy grew near pools and it was cooler up by Bisbee Arizona USA.   Pima County where the ancient city of Tucson is located is drier than what I remember it being back in 1950.  A case of arrested development unless waterless businesses can operate in the desert communities is what we face around here due to the drought.   Invest in golf courses, anyone?

Public policy must cope with the change and if humans are accelerating the process, then invest in research and development to invent the technology to make changes to save our civilization.  

                                     CARVED WOOD JAGUAR HEAD WITH MILAGROS
                                                          MEXICO NUEVO LAREDO

QE and the Promise of 2012

As the conjunction of 2012 heralds the ending of one baktun, a mathematical observation replicable in visible space a change is predicted.  The previous baktun of 394.26 years encompassed the glory of the Americas and the ascendency of man to the beginning of the space age.  The next baktun must continue the exploration of our visible universe and the Earth population must be stabilized at a size compatible with usable resources while preserving quality of life and employment.  If War burgeons, a descent into barbarism will be deserved and will occur.  We must plan for the future, not just let it happen to us. 

As the new Baktun approaches in December 2012 there are choices to be made.  September 2012 has brought to the world an outbreak of anger and the possibility of war on so many fronts the world would be devastated if they all occurred. 

Rioting Muslims blame the USA for the ugly production by a Coptic Christian Egyptian immigrant criminal who abuses our trust in freedom of speech.  He yelled 'FIRE' in a crowded theater and people have been trampled to death.  I think he should be deported to his native Egypt.  We don't need criminals like that here.  Netanyahu and Ahminjad are trading threats again.  Riots bloom in Lisbon over austerity measures 'needed' to address debt payments.  China and Japan disputing islands.  Hassles all over the world amid rising food prices again.

It is time to choose.

The cause of many of these disputes are historical of long time standing.  The insistence of Muslims that everyone abide by their code of conduct does not have the fresh breath of freedom.  Are they so insecure in their beliefs that they cannot weather criticism or even ridicule?  Are they afraid that an alternative world view will have credence?  If their beliefs are so strong then no alternative opinion would be noticed as a credible threat.  Instead, every possible infraction of their own code of conduct by outsiders, is responded to as if it were a mortal wound.  Muslims should have so much strength of belief that they are steadfast, no matter what is said.  They cannot control the world.  Nothing will allow Muslims to control the world and force all populations to say what they decree.  I would hope the peoples of the world are free of such barbarism.  That is the meaning of freedom of speech is that you will hear what you do not like but you must respect the right for it to be said above all else, lest you lose your freedom of speech also.

Controlling responses to ridicule and cultural differences is necessary in a civilized society that respects freedom of speech.  So if somebody makes a video you disagree with, make your own answering video.  Ridicule the religion of the maker, if you must.  That is how conflict is resolved.   I don't want the world to flame out over such intolerance and avarice fueled disagreements.

The shallowness of 'leaders' never fails to amaze.  QE will now be extended in an attempt to return the economy to bubble betting on real estate, which is falling flat due to actual lending standards in place, the paucity of jobs and a wariness on the part of investors.  Tech is the new moneymaker but our leaders cannot cut back on union construction worker demands.  Construction can no longer rule the economy.  The retreading of construction workers should be encouraged through the use of cut rate tuition.  The excess of workers in the construction industry must be recognized.     

Encouraging the trading of equities before any new businesses  upon which equities are based are created is even more bubble talk.  I think Dr. Bernanke is making a mistake in that he does not know that the economic succession must begin with the creation of a usable object, the trade or sale of the object, the investing profits back into the business to improve it, and the paying of an affordable wage for workers.  That is the process by which real equities in businesses that produce jobs are created.  No other way will suffice.  Anything else is bubble talk.  Think Apple!

In today's economy, the production of a very real IPhone is producing jobs.  The trading of derivatives produces no tangible object and produces no jobs but creates huge income for a few while tying up money.  In today's economy innovation of a new object will create jobs.  I think the mortgage backed securities should be banned, along with all the derivatives.  At least give them status in Vegas, where that kind of betting is encouraged. 

As for the government, why not fund innovation?  I remember the fifties, when the Russians orbited above us and suddenly the schools went all scientific and government backed research and development because of the cold war and the threat of attack from outer space.  We were the first to the moon and the space program created many jobs over decades.  I like the current meld of government and private enterprise development of off planet resources.  I believe that tangible assets are to be had in the form of mineral resources off planet.  We are like humans wading across the straits and looking towards Alaska and all to the South.   They did not turn back and nor should we.  This is an opportunity for investment in the future that would pay off for our descendents and the younger ones among us.  We must consider the future if there is to be one.       

                                                                       

Housing Hypocrisy

 

 

I don't understand why economists automatically assume that housing must always be escalating in value or the economy is not doing well.  They have chosen the largest big ticket item and decided that people should always be paying more and more for it as a system to base their economies on endless growth. 

Their economy is based on escalating real estate costs and the benefit to the people is that they can then borrow money against this sudden unearned equity in their property.  They assumed that this possibility is a short term good because it circulates money but it takes a lot longer to pay it back than it does to spend it.  That's called a recession, one caused by excessive credit or by another name the future was mortgaged and the payback time is the recession. 

Late night TV suggests that rents are now being raised and there will be a big rental squeeze in order to charge sky high rents.  So now the foreclosed upon will be faced with high rents, no credit and no way to provide for their families.  Sounds like a recipe for civil unrest to me. 

How about an alternative scenario where housing remains more or less static in price?  What would that do to the economy?  Perhaps the sliding scale interest on mortgages is a bad idea because it causes uncertainty for the homeowner.   Whatever happened to fixed rate mortgages?  Perhaps the types of mortgages should be limited to those that promote the long term health of the economy.  

If property remained static in price and the mortgage payments were on a constant amount, perhaps more personal financial planning could occur that is not based on property equities, like more savings, more predictable discretionary spending and maybe even more education as an investment.  Having to plan for constant inflation destroys equilibrium.  Mr. Bernanke plans for 2% inflation, which means savings is worth 2% less every year and items purchased cost 2% more.  Why do they say this is beneficial?

Swift Justice is Needed

I remember stories of the wild west in the nineteenth century, when the code of the west lived in the hearts of many.   Justice was quick.  Killers were hung after declared guilty during a trial.  If the killing had been witnessed by credible citizens, the execution was quick. 

Remember McVeigh?  His trial was quick and his execution quickly followed.  The lawyers did not milk the case for years and years while the murderer was coddled with psychiatrists and consultants and the lawyers ran up the bills.  Hell, these days a mass murderer is good for lawyer income for decades.

Look at Loughner, the mass murderer and maimer.  This guy is obviously guilty of the crimes.  There is no question that he did it.  He cannot be rehabilitated and released.  He does not deserve to live.  Why must the taxpayers pay for plane trips, psychiatrists, tests, lawyers and all the expensive trappings that will never change the fact that Loughner is a criminal?  Our society does not have money to waste on this kind of expensive exploitation of a tragedy. 

Now this latest creep in Colorado who ambushes innocent people is being set up for years and years of lawyers, tests, psychiatrists and all the tax money he can possibly spend defending himself against the indefensible.  People saw him do the killings.  I don't care if some expensive psychiatrist intones that this killer is insane.  Killers like this need swift justice.  The lawyers and all those who make their livings in the court system should not be allowed to exploit these tragedies for personal gain. 

Whatever happened to common sense?  The delay of justice dishonors the families of the victims and the victims themselves.   These killers should have a speedy trial and swift justice meted out.  If an appeal is made, then it will be done quickly and if denied, justice will prevail quickly.  The massive slowness and complexity of these trial 'preparations' and the lengthy appeal process actually encourages crime, in that justice will not be swift. 

As long as murderers get away with it by cruising through the system paying lawyers with tax money, the murders will continue.  If potential murderers knew a convicted murderer was rapidly executed, possibly that would be a deterrent.  I think going to prison is worth it to these killers.  Let's give them a surprise.