Saturday, August 25, 2012

Housing Hypocrisy

 
 
I don't understand why economists automatically assume that housing must always be escalating in value or the economy is not doing well.  They have chosen the largest big ticket item and decided that people should always be paying more and more for it as a system to base their economies on endless growth. 
Their economy is based on escalating real estate costs and the benefit to the people is that they can then borrow money against this sudden unearned equity in their property.  They assumed that this possibility is a short term good because it circulates money but it takes a lot longer to pay it back than it does to spend it.  That's called a recession, one caused by excessive credit or by another name the future was mortgaged and the payback time is the recession. 
Late night TV suggests that rents are now being raised and there will be a big rental squeeze in order to charge sky high rents.  So now the foreclosed upon will be faced with high rents, no credit and no way to provide for their families.  Sounds like a recipe for civil unrest to me. 
How about an alternative scenario where housing remains more or less static in price?  What would that do to the economy?  Perhaps the sliding scale interest on mortgages is a bad idea because it causes uncertainty for the homeowner.   Whatever happened to fixed rate mortgages?  Perhaps the types of mortgages should be limited to those that promote the long term health of the economy.  
If property remained static in price and the mortgage payments were on a constant amount, perhaps more personal financial planning could occur that is not based on property equities, like more savings, more predictable discretionary spending and maybe even more education as an investment.  Having to plan for constant inflation destroys equilibrium.  Mr. Bernanke plans for 2% inflation, which means savings is worth 2% less every year and items purchased cost 2% more.  Why do they say this is beneficial?

Monday, July 30, 2012

Swift Justice is Needed


I remember stories of the wild west in the nineteenth century, when the code of the west lived in the hearts of many.   Justice was quick.  Killers were hung after declared guilty during a trial.  If the killing had been witnessed by credible citizens, the execution was quick. 

Remember McVeigh?  His trial was quick and his execution quickly followed.  The lawyers did not milk the case for years and years while the murderer was coddled with psychiatrists and consultants and the lawyers ran up the bills.  Hell, these days a mass murderer is good for lawyer income for decades.

Look at Loughner, the mass murderer and maimer.  This guy is obviously guilty of the crimes.  There is no question that he did it.  He cannot be rehabilitated and released.  He does not deserve to live.  Why must the taxpayers pay for plane trips, psychiatrists, tests, lawyers and all the expensive trappings that will never change the fact that Loughner is a criminal?  Our society does not have money to waste on this kind of expensive exploitation of a tragedy. 

Now this latest creep in Colorado who ambushes innocent people is being set up for years and years of lawyers, tests, psychiatrists and all the tax money he can possibly spend defending himself against the indefensible.  People saw him do the killings.  I don't care if some expensive psychiatrist intones that this killer is insane.  Killers like this need swift justice.  The lawyers and all those who make their livings in the court system should not be allowed to exploit these tragedies for personal gain. 

Whatever happened to common sense?  The delay of justice dishonors the families of the victims and the victims themselves.   These killers should have a speedy trial and swift justice meted out.  If an appeal is made, then it will be done quickly and if denied, justice will prevail quickly.  The massive slowness and complexity of these trial 'preparations' and the lengthy appeal process actually encourages crime, in that justice will not be swift. 

As long as murderers get away with it by cruising through the system paying lawyers with tax money, the murders will continue.  If potential murderers knew a convicted murderer was rapidly executed, possibly that would be a deterrent.  I think going to prison is worth it to these killers.  Let's give them a surprise.   

Thursday, July 05, 2012

Fast and Furious


Fast and Furious Update: 

This is a short history of events leading up to President Obama citing Executive Privilege over data acquisition requests by Rep. Darrel Issa (R-California), chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. 

House Speaker John Boehner asked, "So what is the Obama administration hiding in Fast and Furious?" (Washington Times, June 22,2012)  Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa is the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee.  He wants to know how Fast and Furious operated and the identities of those responsible.

The House Oversight Committee asked for documentation on these and other issues:

·         A letter containing false information concerning Fast and Furious was released to Congress under the aegis of the Attorney General's office.  This letter dated Feb. 4, 2011 was addressed to Sen. Chuck Grassley.  It was signed by Assistant Attorney General Ronald Weich.  Later Attorney General Eric Holder defended Mr. Weich by saying he had received false information about the gunrunning program, and then retracted the Feb. letter in Dec. 2012.  Mr. Weich resigned in mid June, 2012.  In March 2012, Mr. Weich disregarded a supoena from the Committee for further information on Fast and Furious.

·         Whistleblower persecution within the ATF concerning Fast and Furious is ongoing.  I heard one of those whistleblowers speak at a rally in Oro Valley.  Public safety was the main concern of the whistleblower I heard.  I know the Fast and Furious debacle endangered the lives of all law enforcement in the southwestern states.  One border Sheriff said he was never informed of the program.  We need to know the chain of command that led to a repeat of the previous ATF  gunrunning.  The Committee wants these documents.

·         If wiretaps were used during Fast and Furious, the Committee wants information concerning what senior official reviewed the program and who issued the wiretap order.

The Oversight Committee, chaired by Rep. Issa, voted to cite Attorney General Holder for Contempt of Congress for refusing to turn over the information needed by the Committee to obtain actual oversight of the entire Fast and Furious program.  A full vote of the house is expected the week of June 27, 2012.

President Obama's press secretary dismissed the importance of Fast and Furious, calling the information requests a political stunt.  President Obama asserted Executive Privilege in order to prevent delivery of the relevant documents, which action is protecting somebody within the Justice Department from scrutiny by the House Oversight Committee.

Attorney General Eric Holder has now been voted in Contempt of Congress for his refusal to deliver the requested data, including the chain of command leading up the Fast and Furious tragedy.  I thank Sen. Grassley and Rep. Issa for their continued interest in this program that allowed the Feds to set up an illegal operation in Arizona without the knowledge of local law enforcement. 


Eclipse of Sun 2012 Tucson

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Unintended Consequences in Government

                                                Night blooming cerus Tucson Arizona USA 

As I grew older my understanding of long term consequences of social engineering, regulations, tax policies, R&D priorities and other phenomena has grown.  A course of action that is beneficial in the short term might not be so beneficial down the road.  An example of that is a recent celebration that consumer debt had risen and thus helped the economy.  As this debt comes due, less spending will be the result, which will negatively impact the economy for as long as it takes to pay the debt.  Interest goes to the moneylenders, who sock it away to gamble on derivatives, shorts and other nonproductive 'investments'.  Investments like these used to be called a 'stake' in gambler's lingo.  Maybe this short term gambling leads to long term malaise of the economy. 
The betting on whether a country will default or not should be confined to Las Vegas and other gambling centers.  Huge sums bet on national default in today's world will result in activity that brings default about, in order to cash in on insurance purchased.  It's like buying life insurance on your neighbor, then setting him up so you can collect.   Who is investigating if this is happening?
Student debt is of much discussion and a huge debate whether to raise student debt interest rates or not has not produced a solution to the problem that graduates don't have jobs waiting for them.  As a student, I remember knowing that degrees in the arts might not be able to get a job after graduation.  Students choose their major and apparently the student loan people do not limit the debt to people who are specializing where the jobs are. 
Why have the costs of education versus income changed so much?  The Arizona constitution guarantees an education at reasonable cost.  Is student debt a reasonable cost?  For how long is this debt reasonable or is it reasonable to demand a long term lien on future earnings in order to go to school at all?  Has it become so that the average student MUST assume debt in order to access school?  That is not a reasonable cost.
 When I entered the University of Arizona in 1963, tuition was about $424 a year plus about $160 more for books.  Working at $3.00 an hour, it took about 5 weeks to earn that money by working at a service job.  Now, in state tuition at the UofA is $9,286 a year, which would require about 1,160 hours of work at $8.00 an hour, slightly over minimum wage.   Now a student would have to work 29 weeks to earn the tuition, while in 1963 a student would work just 5 weeks to earn the tuition.   
Economic problems result from little planning and the student loan problem is a good example of what EZ Loans can do to a society, as future productivity is harnessed for the present, resulting in future economic slowdowns based on the debt service.  This harms the consumer market because the debt prevents spending on widgets and the few moneylenders who are amassing the money can only use so many widgets. 
Unintended consequences from policies and thoughtless legislation have resulted in detrimental effects towards perpetuating the long term culture.  The formation of unions when workers were little more than slaves was appropriate for the time but the politically powerful unions have now lobbied their advantage throughout the nation.  The unplanned long term consequence of requiring union membership is seen in rising costs and fewer jobs.
 Another phenomena is that of the government assisting the unions in control of workers by forcing the deletion of union dues from workers' paychecks instead of the unions collecting their own dues.  It appears that some of these organizations are so good at getting their workers such high wages and benefits that the widgets they make can be made for much less elsewhere, and shipped here for sale at a profit.  The short term planning is always higher wages and more benefits, not whether their demands will bankrupt the business in the long term.  Forcing workers to finance organizations like these is not going to result in economic recovery.     
The union stalemate creates very few high paying jobs and expensive products that cannot even compete locally in the global economy.  The laws forcing union membership  are actually preventing access to a willing and able workforce who would work for less, which would allow the production of a lower priced product.  Some unions are essential, but membership should be voluntary, with a secret ballot.  Competitive hiring would allow for more workers to be hired, at a lower rate than union scale.  The issue of 'benefits' must be addressed next.  
The long term consequences of requiring employers to buy health insurance for their workers is affecting our economy today.  Workers in hazardous jobs like mining and police work should receive coverage of job related health care costs, which was the original intent of activists who saw workers suffering from job related maladies who were then replaced without regard for compensation for injuries.  Such is the moral basis of capitalism, that businesses must legally be bound to take care of workers injured on the job but the unions have ballooned 'benefits' into total coverage for every wart for the worker and his family, even after they retire.  And the insurance companies responded to the mandatory insurance requirement by raising their prices.  Some businesses are not hiring workers due to the unpredictable escalating costs of providing insurance.
I say go back to the free enterprise system and cancel all the mandatory insurance requirements.  If an individual wants 'coverage', then that individual can find their own insurance plan and pay for it.  Employers will then be relieved of paying and arranging for insurance for employees and employees will be free to spend their money however they like.  There is already a low cost health care option in the form of the urgent care outlets and drug store nurses, who can serve the locals' minor needs quickly and inexpensively.  Individuals should not be required to buy health insurance.  Let the market determine health care costs, not the insurance companies.  The populace and employers should not see an ever increasing percentage of their income go to insurance. 
The government should not be in the business of requiring purchase of anything.  Taxes are already a burden.  The long term consequences of mandatory insurance in the workplace has been inflation in health care and insurance costs.  The insurance brokers and  health care suppliers continually raise prices, while the populace has no say but must pay ever higher costs. 
Short term thinking has resulted in problems for our nation.  The EZ loan caused housing bubble and the sale of worthless derivatives based on the subprime loans caused politicians to vote to bailout the institutions that insured those loans, rather than the original investors who were defrauded.  The long term consequences for this bailout remain to be seen, but the recent J.P. Morgan financial losses point to more of the same behavior that caused the financial crisis. 
Repeal of the Glass Steagall Act was a prime example of short term thinking that had negative long term consequences.  I disrespect anyone who had anything to do with that, including President Clinton, who signed it.
                                              Reaching For Rain